We have fiddled around in recent days with key inflection points in risk, including the 200-day moving average in the US S&P500 and the Ichimoku cloud level in USDJPY, not to mention the 200-day moving average in risk trades like USDCAD, but today seemed to offer a rather definitive statement on the fate of the risk on, risk off trade for now, as the strong risk sell-off took control into the finish today. EURUSD fell below 1.2000 and Dow 10,000 also gave way on the day. All risk indicators pointed south. This looks like a very emotional environment, and leverage should be adjusted accordingly.
by: saxobank

The dollar and yen rose while stocks fell on Friday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was sued by SEC for fraud tied to packaging and selling collateralized debt obligations. President Hu Jintao reiterated that China is moving forward with a gradual “managed” floating exchange-rate plan. US economic data were mixed; March housing starts and building permits were better than anticipated while April consumer sentiment was weaker than expected. The S&P 500 index fell 19.54 to 1,192.13. The euro was pressured by ongoing worries about debt-laden Greece. Sterling depreciated on increased risk of a hung parliament after UK's third party, the Liberal Democrats, gained in opinion polls making it less likely that any party could win a majority. The Australian and Canadian dollars fell as commodity prices dropped and risk aversion rose.
The USD/JPY fell as investors sold risky assets. Japan's ruling party said monetary easing and currency invention are needed to combat deflation. However, the comment did not seem to affect the pair. Since failing to break the 94-area resistance, the USD/JPY has been consolidating gains. Still, the long-term technical outlook is bullish. The long-term downtrend was broken and the pair will likely resume its rally. Resistances are in the 94.50 and 96.50 areas and supports in the 91.50 and 90.00 areas
Hans Nilsson
Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
www.cmsfx.com
Previously Signal
Sell Eur/Usd @ 1.3417
Target : 1.3273
Stop Loss : 1.3600
on 30 March 2010, 5 PM GMT
Update Signal:
Change Target Close @ 1.3342 on 8 April 2010, 6 PM GMT
Result, Profit 75 pips
I close the trade because now the market doesn't have clear direction. I still view Bearish, but until i get clear direction i prefer stay away from market. I think Eur/Usd can reach 1.30 major psychology support level.
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my signal previously until now had bad results. it's almost hit my stop @1.3600
but if we see tomorrow about NFP payroll, i expected about good NFP news for Usd, it still can touch my target @1.3273
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Have a nice day folks, and prepare for NFP tomorrow.
Sell Eur/Usd @ 1.3417
Target : 1.3273
Stop Loss : 1.3600